NFL Trends: Part 6 – Homesick

Time for Part 6 of NFL Trends! If you haven’t, check out the Part 5 article on Rest. Today we’ll look at how teams may be under or overvalued based on their time since their last home or away game. To start things off, let’s look at how often a home team covers based on their time away.

home since away greater

Not too much to say here, but it appears that teams on a long home stretch may benefit against the spread. Teams that go 3+ weeks without an away game improve their odds of covering by a few percentage points. If we switch to looking at the visiting team, something a little clearer shows up.

visitor since away less

Visiting teams that have played another away game in the last week or two improve their odds of covering the spread. At about 51%, these trends are not ideal/profitable long term, but they are interesting to point out. It is likely the case that teams playing away games perform poorly, making them undervalued for the next week or two.

Until next time, check out the previous NFL Trends here for other neat observations and analysis.

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